Once upon a time it was fashionable for outstanding three-year-olds to win the Sydney Cup at Randwick but will Tupac Amaru, named after an Inca revolutionary in Peru, fit the profile on Saturday?
Thirty have triumphed in the 3200 metre staying test but the last was Tie the Knot (1988) with the best Kingston Town in 1980.
Kingston Town earned the supreme accolade in the Sydney Cup after experts felt the task he had been set was too demanding.
“The race proved to me that Kingston Town was a champion,’ trainer Tommy Smith subsequently declared. “He was only a three-year-old and carrying a kilo over weight-for-age (52.5kg), drew an outside barrier in a big field.
“(Jockey Malcolm) Johnston made three runs on him, took him to the front a long way from home and still ran right away from the others in the straight.
”I never thought I’d have another horse to compare with Tulloch but this fellow’s got me thinking.”
According to The King – The Story Of A Champion by Graham Kelly, rival trainer Bart Cummings declared: ”There is no doubt Kingston Town is another Tulloch. I saw Tulloch in his greatest wins and Kingston Town is the equal to him.”
In that era the Sydney Cup was the second leg of the autumn Randwick double but in the coming chapter the race is surpassed by the weight-for-age $4 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Apart from the Queen Elizabeth and Sydney Cup on Saturday the other group 1, The Oaks, is a race of interest, with fillies of potential with their best possibly yet to come, the situation confronting Tupac Amaru against the older, more seasoned stayers in the Sydney Cup.
While three-year-olds Kingston Town, and Our Paddy Boy (1981) had notched the AJC Derby prior, both Double Century (1979) and Tie The Knot, like Tupac Amaru, had gone down in the Classic.
Perhaps they had superior form but Tupac Amaru, developed and tuned by Peter Snowden, is blooming as his distances increase.
The colt was only beaten a long neck by the superbly ridden Criterion in last Saturday’s AJC Australian Derby, a race given a well up to the required standard rating by experts.
In an attempt to get him mobile after sluggish efforts in shorter races Kerrin McEvoy made demands on Tupac Amaru.
“Mid field two wide, took off five wide from the 800 metres: chimed in at 600 metres: fought very gamely down the centre” a video expert reported.
Tupac Amaru was hitting the line solidly at the finish, indicating the staying power required for the extreme distance, particularly on heavy ground.
No doubt The Offer, the Irish bred trained by Gai Waterhouse, is the worthy favourite considering his domination in the Chairman’s Handicap at Randwick last Saturday and the New Zealander Who Shot Thebarman, a proven two-miler, adds variety to the staying test.
“He's very raw which is a little bit of a worry, especially competing on a bigger stage," James McDonald, who navigates the gelding, commented to AAP.
"But geez, he gives you a feel."
Maybe the depth of the Auckland Cup (3200m), in which he scored by a length on March 5 from Celtic Prince on level weights (52.5 kg), is suspect and he goes up to 56kg.
Who Shot Thebarman is conditioned by Mark Oulaghan, unknown in Australia but McDonald regards him highly.
"He wouldn't bring him over if he didn't think the horse was up to it," McDonald said.
"He's very good with jumpers and stayers, obviously you have to be a very good to train those horses."
On the subject of quality in the Sydney Cup, “Bronze Bullet”, on Racenet, was keen on Voleuse De Coeurs :”Hope they vet check Voleuse De Coeurs.....make sure she has still got four legs.....how is she not challenging for favouritism? She was only second up in the BMW and her last bit was her best....can only improve, none of the others would even get a run in a Melbourne Cup and she finished top 10 (only just but she did) she has now been here six months and from all reports is a lot stronger....too much class.....”
Alas Voleuse De Coeurs has 58kg, and the last mare to take the Sydney Cup was Jessicabeel (2010) with 54kg. Before her the champion Makybe Diva (2004), and only two, Lowland (1969) and Maidenhead (1963), were able to win since 1960.
Beware of Brigantin, only sixth in the BMW under weight-for-age conditions at Rosehill on April 5. The gelding drops from 59kg to 54.5kg and the Chris Waller factor with target races could come into play with him.
Still Tupac Amaru has the potential to break new ground in the modern era.
Hopefully the colt ends up better than his namesake. The first Tupac Amaru was hung, drawn and quartered by the Spanish.
