GPT Group, possibly in a joint venture, has emerged as the latest name to be casting an eye over the Investa Property Group portfolio, said to be worth about $7 billion.
It joins a long list of potential buyers that have said to be looking, with at least some also entering the data room for a more in-depth look.
These range from Charter Hall, DEXUS Property – maybe in a tie-up with GPT, sovereign funds from Singapore, Hong Kong-based pension and other investors from the Middle east to Europe. Its a long list.
The business is being sold by Morgan Stanley and comprises the on-balance sheet portfolio, the management platform and any co-investment stakes in Investa Office Fund and the unlisted Investa Commercial Office Fund. There is also Investa Land, being the former Clarendon Homes.
While the general investor population isn't that enamoured by takeover activity, particularly cash bids with can incur capital gains tax, its the livelihood of the investment advisory sector and also keeps newspaper reporters busy.
While this deal has been a long time coming, other potential mergers and acquisitions are being touted, albeit at a time of low cost of debt, but with the real estate investment trusts, all trading above net asset values.
Being chased as yield generating, the REITS, are now back in vogue, which has pushed up the prices on the sharemarket. As a result, they are less attractive to takeover.
Nonetheless, with the wagons circling Investa, speculation is running high of other deals.
The global weight of money argument has led to suggest that even the Japanese investors are looking further afield and could see Australia as an attractive place.
There has been market suggestions that Mirvac has appointed a defense adviser in case its residential business gets into the sight of a potential predator.
According to Macquarie Equities, other potential deals could be Charter Hall and SCA Property, the perennial GPT and DEXUS deal and Mirvac and Stockland.
Of course, all such mega mergers, would entail asset sales and approval by the Australian Competition and Consumer Corporation as well as investors, some of whom may not like to see such consolidation.
But any buyer of the Investa platform will get an instant stronghold into the Australian office market. For GPY, DEXUS and Charter Hall, its great access to some to key office towers.
According to JP Morgan's analysts they have reviewed the IPG portfolio, saying that any agreement to divest this will be the first step in a multi-stage process.
"Based on our review, we estimate the portfolio comprises nine assets (assuming 126 Phillip Street is included) with combined book value of $1.9 billion at about $9500 per square metre per annum of net lettable area [NLA] with an average capitalisation rate of 6.5 per cent," the brokers said.
"We note that the portfolio ranks below GPT but above DXS in overall asset quality and we believe it is likely to sell at a material premium to book value with a realistic capitalisation rate in the range of 5.8 per cent to 6.2 per cent – representing an uplift in value of around 10 per cent and compression in capitalsiaton rates of 35 to 70 basis points."
