Faraway conflict feeds into Morrison's national security pitch

His denunciation of the Russian "thugs" and "bullies" has been cast in the most forceful language. After announcing sanctions on Wednesday, he assured Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal that Australia, working with its partners, was prepared to do more.

Wednesday's initial sanctions were in line with those of the United States and United Kingdom; they're being progressively ramped up in concert with the Western effort. Now, working with NATO, we're sending funding for non-lethal military assistance and medical supplies for Ukraine.

In terms of effect, any punitive measures Australia takes mean a lot less to the Russians than similar sanctions imposed by the bigger players. As Morrison noted, our trade with Russia is small.

Morrison, incidentally, was careful about local blowback. For Australian businesses, the government said there would be more than a month's breathing space before the measures affecting them come in.

What Morrison described as this "brutal invasion" will have seismic international ramifications, including in economic terms, although notably no countries are willing to put troops on the ground to defend Ukraine.

Given the timing, these events could be important in Australia's domestic politics. The Ukraine crisis feeds directly into Morrison's push to make national security a central feature of the campaign for the May election.

One is tempted to revert to 2001, when the election victory of John Howard, who'd been seriously struggling politically, came off the back of the terrorist attacks in the US and the Tampa's load of asylum seekers.

That comparison is limited, however. The September 11 attacks had a more immediate impact on Australians, not least because Australian forces were part of the ensuing war in Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, the Ukraine crisis will continue to escalate, and what happens there will feature heavily in the news in the weeks ahead. Morrison will keep it prominent in the national conversation.

A crisis gives the PM a potent new focus. As Paul Kelly observes in his just-published book Morrison's Mission: How a beginner reshaped Australian foreign policy, "Morrison's character is that of a compulsive political activist. He is always on the move, talking, travelling, doing."

Labor is leading comfortably in the polls, but for Anthony Albanese the Ukraine crisis presents, at the very least, a political challenge.

This is not a matter of a wedge - no one can suggest any lack of bipartisanship over Ukraine. Labor was immediately and solidly behind the initial sanctions, and Albanese will ensure it will stay in step with the government. But such a major conflict, even one far removed and in which we are not directly involved, changes the domestic atmosphere and plays to the status quo.

It also limits the attention on the issues on which Labor wants to focus, such as the increasing cost of living and stagnant wages (although rising oil prices will impose further pressure on high petrol prices).

Assuming there is not a new COVID variant, the foreign crisis may help to put a full stop under "pandemic politics", making it harder for Labor to get public attention back on the government's failures on issues such as aged care.

Simon Welsh of the RedBridge Group, a Labor-aligned consultancy firm, says its focus group research has been finding people have a general sense of tension increasing in the world. So far, however, that still sits behind their concern with domestic bread-and-butter issues.

But, as of now, we are in a dynamic, rapidly changing situation.

Morrison is trying to bring China - on which he is attempting to wedge Labor - into the Ukraine story as much as possible, with the government attacking its soft response and its failure to pressure President Putin.

But research, both qualitative and quantitative, is suggesting Morrison may be at risk of overplaying his hand with the China card more generally.

Welsh says the focus group work indicates it is a two-edged sword. "China is a nuanced discussion," he says. It's not hard to stoke anti-China feeling, "but people also say you need a good relationship - for jobs, business".

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A similar picture comes through in the Essential poll published this week. Some 61 per cent agreed with the proposition that "Australia's relationship with China is a complex relationship to be managed". This compared to 26 per cent who thought "Australia's relationship with China is a threat to be confronted".

When people were asked which party they would "most trust to build a relationship with China in Australia's best interests", 37 per cent said Labor, 28 per cent said the Coalition, and 34 per cent were unsure.

Albanese knows he must make himself better known to voters, and has counted on doing this in the approach to the election. Now he finds himself pursuing his charm offensive in the fog of a conflict that is distant but dominant.

Earlier this month we had the "Meet the Morrisons" program, courtesy of Nine's 60 Minutes. This week we have "At home with Anthony Albanese and partner Jodie" in The Australian Women's Weekly.

The soft article was the formal introduction to the public of Jodie Haydon. It canvassed Albanese's (oft-repeated) childhood story as well as Jodie's, their meeting (a coming together of two Rabbitohs supporters), and her reaction when early last year he was badly hurt in a car accident.

As he attends to marketing his human side, Albanese is working hard on selling himself to business, including a speech to business figures this week, and an Australian Financial Review Magazine profile in which he declares: "I'm comfortable in the boardrooms as well as the pub."

To those who argued Labor risked leaving its run too late, Albanese has retorted it's the "fourth quarter" that counts. But, as we're now seeing, the fourth quarter can be much complicated by the unexpected.