Dear Dr Lowe,
Just a short note to say thanks for the bum steer.
On Tuesday, as expected, you put interest rates up by 0.5 percentage points. That's the third rise in as many months. The big banks are already piling in, and soon ordinary householders like us will be looking for extra $100 or $200 a month or more to pay the mortgage. And you have made it clear that more pain is to come.
We get it. We understand that interest rates need to rise to cut inflation. That's pretty much unavoidable. We understand that things are tricky globally, what with Putin's wicked war and supply chain issues. And yes, the pandemic has made your job in steering the economy more difficult. (The pandemic has actually been pretty rough on us too.)
But why - why? - did you tell us that the cash rate would stay at 0.1 per cent until 2024?
You spent most of last year telling us that interest rates were unlikely to rise for years. Years! And yet, here we are in 2022 with big rate rises slamming us faster than you can say "pass the lettuce".
We're sure you had your reasons, and we do not doubt your good intentions. You actually seem like a really nice bloke.
But was this really the best thing to do? When the governor of the Reserve Bank - the country's top economic expert - speaks, people listen. And when they hear that the interest rate runway is likely to be clear for years - years! - they make plans. They decide to borrow to buy a house or to do renovations. They plan to start or enlarge their families. Maybe they stretch their budget just a bit further in an already overheated housing market to get their slice of the great Australian dream.
So how did you get it so wrong? Why did financial markets seem to twig to the fact that the economy was picking up speed before your experts? Why didn't you act sooner to slow things down? Now, instead of tapping the brakes gently on the way down the hill we seem to be skidding towards a cliff, reaching desperately for the handbrake.
We trusted you and your team. And you got it wrong. We're sorry to be blunt, but we pay you to get this stuff right. It's your job. It makes it difficult for us to have confidence in what you are saying and doing now. We know you'll say your comments were not meant as a guarantee, and that they were "conditional", but mate, it just doesn't pass the pub test. If we made this kind of stuff-up we'd be in for a pretty uncomfortable conversation with the boss.
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Recently you said the RBA had made "embarrassing" forecasting mistakes and that "we should have done better". But it wasn't much of an admission of error. It wasn't even an apology when some in this position would offered their resignation.
Meanwhile many of us out here in the real world, away from the rarefied air of the Reserve Bank boardroom, are worried, really worried, about where we will find the extra money every month to pay the mortgage repayments on top of stupidly high gas and electricity bills and groceries. Not to mention extra cash for shoes and clothes for the kids. Try doing that on an average wage!
Anyway, must dash. We need to fill the car up with petrol before we get the groceries. That'll be another $150. Mince again for dinner tonight. Oh, and mustn't forget the cabbage for the school lunches.
*On behalf of hard-working Australians
WHAT THE GOVERNOR SAID
March 2021: Our judgment is that we are unlikely to see wages growth consistent with the inflation target before 2024. This is the basis for our assessment that the cash rate is very likely to remain at its current level until at least 2024.
September 2021: I find it difficult to understand why rate rises are being priced in next year or early 2023.
November 2021: Q: What do you make of rate rises being priced in as early as February, March next year?
A: I think that's a complete overreaction to the recent inflation data ... I still struggle with the scenario in which rates need to be raised next year ... Not impossible, but I would say it's extremely unlikely.
WHAT THE RBA DID
May 2022: Increased the official cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.35 per cent - the first rise in more than 11 years.
June 2022: Increased the cash rate by 0.50 points to 0.85 per cent - the biggest one-off rise in more than two decades.
July 2022: Increased the cash rate by 0.50 points to 1.35 per cent - with another 0.50-point rise expected in August.
